What moved RAYMOND, and why

The causal model found 52 big moves in RAYMOND since 2015 and leaned the right way before 41 of them. Each move is split into the model’s call, the market, the sector and the company event behind it. Dated headlines and RAYMOND’s own exchange filings name that event for 42 of the 52, and on 19 at least one driver passes every causal test.

Highlighted phrases open the evidence behind them; click one to keep it open. Data as of 27 October 2026.

The full report, live: preview — The full report, live
Price history with every shock marked, each move’s headlines and NSE filings, the causal evidence, and a what-if engine that returns a range for RAYMOND when you set a market, sector or event shock.
Moves
52
Causes named
42/52
Causally tested
19

Every move, decomposed

Select any of the 52 moves. The bars show where it came from in percentage points; the cause underneath opens its headlines, filings and the day-by-day returns around the peak.

RAYMOND · 52 big moves since 2015

call leaned right leaned wrong41/52

#52 · 21 Aug – 7 Oct 2026 · Company news

+52.8%move

Raymond Limited’s Aerospace Subsidiary Wins Multi-Programme Aerospace Orders from a Leading Indian Aerospace and Defence Major

Passed every causal test: policy news, news.

Where the move came from · pts

Model call leaned the right way+2.0
Market −0.5
Textiles peers −1.9
Company event +53.1

Call + market + sector + company = +52.8 pts. Data as of 27 October 2026.

The largest move, cause by cause

From 21 Aug – 7 Oct 2026 RAYMOND rose +52.8%. The model’s call the day before was +2.0 points, the market took 0.5 off and textile peers 1.9. The remaining +53.1 points are company-specific, and the dated cause is the aerospace subsidiary’s multi-programme order win. Two groups of drivers pass every causal test on this move: policy news and company news. News can be credited only because RAYMOND passes the mechanism test, and both effects clear the placebo dates.

The largest fall, −46.5% from 26 Feb – 29 Apr 2020, came in the 2020 crash. Textile peers took 9.8 points off and the market 2.2; the named event is an NSE filing on the resignation of the lifestyle business’s chief executive. It sits before the causal test window, so no driver is credited.

The causal graph behind the breakdown

IROHA learns which variables drive RAYMOND’s daily return from 1,267 sessions. Related variables are grouped: the market, industry peers, company news, policy news and the world model’s expectation. A link is only confirmed if it survives the evidence gate; textile peers, for example, look related but are gated out. The graph as a whole holds up to a local Markov check and a residual check.

RAYMOND’s causal graph · 1267 sessions, 2021–2026

confirmed candidate gated out

Where the model was wrong

The call leaned the wrong way before 11 of the 52 moves, and 6 of those have no public cause inside the window. They include 2 Mar 2015, −7.7%, 5–18 Jun 2015, +9.0%, 15 Feb 2016, +0.6%, 22 Jul 2016, −20.7%, 13 Feb – 7 Mar 2017, +22.3%, 5 Jul 2017, −0.2% and 5 more.

All 52 moves

Show the full table

RAYMOND's big moves since 2015 with causal breakdown
#	Window	Move	Call	Market	Sector	Company	Named cause	Passed every test
52	21 Aug – 7 Oct 2026	+52.8	+2.0 ✓	−0.5	−1.9	+53.1	Order / contract	Policy news, News
51	7 Apr – 1 Jun 2026	+23.1	+2.4 ✓	+8.0	−4.3	+16.9	Financial results	Model expectation
50	27 Jan 2026	+5.6	+0.5 ✓	+1.7	+10.7	−7.2	Results	Market, Model expectation
49	18 Jun – 2 Jul 2025	+15.2	+0.9 ✓	+1.5	+2.2	+10.5	Expansion / launch	Model expectation, Industry peers
48	14 May 2025	+7.2	+0.8 ✓	+3.0	−8.6	+12.0	Corporate event	Model expectation, News, Market
47	18 Mar 2025	+11.7	+1.5 ✓	+4.6	+2.4	+3.3	Expansion / launch	Model expectation, Market
46	10 Dec 2024	+11.7	+0.9 ✓	−2.3	+5.0	+8.0	Management / governance	Industry peers
45	22 Nov 2024	+14.8	+1.4 ✓	+1.8	+11.5	+0.2	Management / governance	Market
44	22 Aug 2024	−2.8	+0.8 ✗	−0.3	+1.0	−4.3	No public cause found	Model expectation, Industry peers
43	7 Jun – 22 Jul 2024	+23.2	+2.3 ✓	+1.1	−0.5	+20.3	Corporate event	Model expectation, News
42	18 Apr – 2 May 2024	+16.5	+1.7 ✓	+0.1	+0.9	+13.7	Results	News, Model expectation, Industry peers
41	21 Feb 2024	+10.0	+1.8 ✓	−0.4	−1.3	+9.8	Results	none
40	15 Jan 2024	+1.6	+0.9 ✓	−0.1	−2.4	+3.2	No public cause found	none
39	13–30 Nov 2023	−13.8	+1.7 ✗	+1.3	−0.4	−16.4	Order / contract	Market
38	5 Sep 2023	−9.4	+2.9 ✗	−0.1	−0.7	−11.6	No public cause found	Model expectation
37	13–27 Apr 2023	+15.1	+0.8 ✓	+1.2	+2.5	+10.7	Corporate action	none
36	2 Dec 2022	+10.3	+1.5 ✓	−0.9	−2.1	+11.8	No public cause found	none
35	12 Oct 2022	+9.1	+1.4 ✓	+0.3	+0.1	+7.3	Capital raise / stake	Model expectation
34	6–16 Jun 2022	−23.0	+0.6 ✗	−1.0	−4.6	−17.9	No public cause found	Market, Industry peers
33	19 May – 3 Jun 2022	+13.3	+0.9 ✓	−2.9	−1.8	+17.0	Results	Model expectation, Industry peers
32	17–31 Mar 2022	+17.1	+1.0 ✓	+0.1	−0.5	+16.5	Corporate action	Model expectation, Industry peers
31	23 Feb 2022	+8.2	+0.8 ✓	+1.0	0.0	+6.6	No public cause found	none
30	4–28 Jan 2022	+21.7	+1.3 ✓	−0.4	+10.7	+10.1	Results	News
29	9 Nov – 7 Dec 2021	+26.9	+2.2 ✓	−0.3	+6.6	+18.3	Capital raise / stake	Model expectation
28	17 Jun 2021	+3.7	+2.1 ✓	0.0	+11.9	−10.3	Sector theme	–
27	19 Feb 2021	+1.3	+0.5 ✓	0.0	+5.5	−4.6	Sector theme	–
26	29 Sep 2020	+4.8	+2.9 ✓	−0.7	+10.0	−7.4	Sector theme	–
25	22 May – 16 Jun 2020	+14.4	+2.7 ✓	+10.5	+5.2	−4.0	Market-driven	–
24	26 Feb – 29 Apr 2020	−46.5	+0.3 ✗	−2.2	−9.8	−34.7	Resignation	–
23	27 Oct – 21 Nov 2019	+15.2	+0.4 ✓	+0.4	−0.9	+15.4	Results	–
22	24 Sep – 9 Oct 2019	+7.5	+1.1 ✓	−1.0	−4.8	+12.2	Analyst / broker	–
21	23 Apr – 16 May 2019	+10.0	+0.3 ✓	−1.4	+1.2	+9.9	Results	–
20	7–8 Feb 2019	+7.1	+0.8 ✓	+0.4	−5.0	+10.8	No public cause found	–
19	13 Dec 2018	−0.2	−0.2 ✓	+0.4	−4.4	+4.1	Sector theme	–
18	19 Oct – 12 Nov 2018	+20.7	+1.7 ✓	+0.6	−1.5	+19.9	Analyst / broker	–
17	25 Apr 2018	+2.5	+1.3 ✓	−0.4	+2.9	−1.3	Analyst / broker	–
16	1 Nov 2017	+7.7	+1.8 ✓	+0.1	+0.3	+5.5	Analyst / broker	–
15	4 Sep 2017	+0.1	+1.2 ✓	−0.5	−1.0	+0.5	Analyst / broker	–
14	5 Jul 2017	−0.2	+0.6 ✗	+0.9	−1.3	−0.5	Sector theme	–
13	5 Jun 2017	+8.1	+0.5 ✓	−0.1	−3.5	+11.2	Management / governance	–
12	7 Apr – 3 May 2017	+16.8	+1.3 ✓	+0.2	−1.1	+16.4	Analyst / broker	–
11	13 Feb – 7 Mar 2017	+22.3	−0.0 ✗	+0.3	+2.6	+19.5	No public cause found	–
10	27 Dec 2016	+1.5	+0.2 ✓	+2.7	+0.9	−2.4	Market-driven	–
9	10 Oct – 1 Nov 2016	+7.6	+1.6 ✓	−0.5	+3.8	+2.7	Results	–
8	31 Aug – 30 Sep 2016	+27.4	+0.5 ✓	−0.2	+5.1	+22.0	M&A / demerger / stake	–
7	22 Jul 2016	−20.7	+0.5 ✗	−0.2	−2.5	−18.6	Results	–
6	30 May 2016	+0.6	+0.7 ✓	+0.1	+3.6	−3.7	Sector theme	–
5	18 Apr – 10 May 2016	+16.8	+0.8 ✓	−0.1	+4.9	+11.2	Results	–
4	15 Feb 2016	+0.6	−1.1 ✗	−0.4	−0.6	+2.7	No public cause found	–
3	5–18 Jun 2015	+9.0	−0.2 ✗	+0.4	+9.5	−0.7	Sector theme	–
2	2 Mar 2015	−7.7	+1.3 ✗	−1.0	+3.0	−11.0	No public cause found	–
1	5 Feb 2015	+2.9	+1.2 ✓	−0.2	+5.2	−3.2	Sector theme	–

How this was computed

A big move is a window where RAYMOND’s cumulative move far exceeds what its market and sector explain.
The breakdown follows the live report: call + market + sector + company = the move, in percentage points.
Causal tests cover 2021-09-06 to 2026-10-14: placebo dates, stability across sub-periods, the news and filing mechanism tests, and a pooled test of every event type across the 500 most liquid NSE stocks each day (1,423 different stocks since 2012).
Causes come from 1,099 dated headlines and every NSE filing inside each window. See how IROHA works.

Questions

Is this a recommendation on RAYMOND?

No. It explains past price moves and is not advice to buy, sell or hold.

What does “the model leaned the right way” mean?

The model’s expected return the day before the move began had the same sign as the move. It is a direction check, not a trading signal: the call is usually a small fraction of the move.

Why do older moves have no causal test?

The causal tests use data from September 2021 onward, so moves before then show the breakdown and the named cause but no test result.